Trump Backs Off, Suggests 80% Tariff on China but Leaves Final Call to Bessent

President Donald Trump on Friday outlined the U.S. position ahead of the first major round of trade talks with China under his administration, set to take place in Geneva this weekend.

In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump laid out both his expectations and a significant concession: China should significantly increase its imports of American goods, and in exchange, the U.S. could lower its current 145% tariff on most Chinese imports to 80%.

“CHINA SHOULD OPEN UP ITS MARKET TO USA — WOULD BE SO GOOD FOR THEM!!! CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!” Trump wrote in all caps. In a separate post, he added: “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B,” referring to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the American delegation alongside U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Such a reduction would mark a major shift from the current trade policy, which has caused a 60% drop in shipments from China, according to Ryan Petersen, CEO of logistics firm Flexport.

Yet economists say even an 80% tariff may not be low enough to revive U.S. demand for Chinese goods. Many point to 50% as the threshold where trade flows could begin to normalize.

The economic damage, however, is already taking shape. Prices are rising, and analysts at Goldman Sachs warned Thursday that a key inflation metric is on track to double to 4% by year’s end due to the ongoing trade war. Even if tariffs were lifted entirely this weekend, they noted, the U.S. would still face short-term shortages and price spikes due to months of reduced imports.

Meanwhile, China reported Friday that its exports to the U.S. dropped 21% last month — even before the full impact of tariffs was felt.

Trump, however, cast the decline as a win. Speaking from the Oval Office, he argued that fewer imports from China meant the U.S. was no longer "losing money" — a claim economists routinely debunk, noting that trade deficits do not equate to financial loss.

Bessent told Fox News on Tuesday that the upcoming discussions aim to begin easing the tension in the strained U.S.-China trade relationship.

“My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about securing a big trade deal,” Bessent explained. “But we’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward. The 145% and 125% tariffs are essentially like an embargo. We don’t want to decouple — we want fair trade.”

Meanwhile, the aggressive trade policies have already begun to take a toll on the U.S. economy. Last week’s GDP report, which measures the overall economic output, revealed that the U.S. economy contracted for the first time since early 2022. This decline was largely due to companies stockpiling goods in anticipation of tariffs. And that’s before the full impact of the most stringent measures had even been fully implemented.

Despite growing economic concerns, the U.S. and China remain far apart on reaching a comprehensive trade agreement. Bessent cautioned that even with the upcoming talks, it could take two to three years for trade relations to fully normalize. 

Both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have acknowledged that the current high tariffs — with the U.S. imposing a 145% tariff on most Chinese goods and China retaliating with a 125% tariff on American products — are unsustainable and need to be reduced.

However, senior officials from the Trump administration are managing expectations about the upcoming talks in Geneva this weekend. According to sources briefed on the matter, they are positioning the meeting as a positive first step in negotiations but caution that it is unlikely to result in a finalized “deal” or even a framework similar to the one Trump announced with the United Kingdom earlier this week.